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Analysis: Will Ohio Democrats get their wish of Sherrod Brown for U.S. Senate in 2026?

 man stands in front of sheriff's office flag and logo.
Zack Carreon
/
WVXU
Sen. Sherrod Brown in Cincinnati on June 28, 2023.

Ohio鈥檚 biggest political mystery, the one that seems to keep Republicans and Democrats awake at night, has been solved at last 鈥 maybe.

Democrat Sherrod Brown, nine months after losing his bid for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate in Ohio鈥檚 GOP tsunami, is ready to try it again 鈥 maybe.

He may take on Ohio鈥檚 junior senator, Republican Jon Husted, in 2026 for the remaining two years of a Senate term won in 2020 by now-Vice President JD Vance.

At least that鈥檚 , sourced story that popped into millions of inboxes Tuesday morning.

The story was based on reports from three unnamed Ohio labor leaders who told the Plain Dealer that Brown had shared his plans with them. Brown hasn鈥檛 said anything about it yet, but there have been no denials from Brown or the Democratic Party since the story surfaced Tuesday.

Clearly, this is exactly what Democratic party leaders from Washington, D.C., to Columbus wanted to see happen.

It鈥檚 why twice this summer, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer made trips to Brown鈥檚 home in Columbus. Clearly the purpose for Schumer was to sweet-talk Brown into taking on Husted, the former lieutenant governor who was appointed to the Senate vacancy by Gov. Mike DeWine, when Vance was sworn in as vice president in January.

Almost immediately after the story broke, Husted鈥檚 campaign leapt on a theme they think will work well for their candidate in a state Donald Trump won by 11 percentage points in 2024 鈥 making Brown out to be Schumer鈥檚 boy in Ohio, which they believe will not endear him to the MAGA faithful.

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鈥淪hould Brown enter the race as Schumer鈥檚 hand-picked candidate he will be starting in the biggest hole of his political career,鈥欌 Husted campaign spokesman Tyson Shepard said to WVXU. 鈥淗e has never faced a candidate like Jon Husted.鈥

Ohio voters likely are going to hear a lot out of the Husted campaign about 鈥淐huck Schumer鈥檚 hand-picked candidate鈥 over the next 15 months. But it begs the question: Why wouldn鈥檛 Chuck Schumer 鈥 or the leadership of the Ohio Democratic Party 鈥 want Brown to carry the banner in 2026? He鈥檚 clearly the most formidable candidate the Democrats could put out there.

All the Democrats must do is flip four Senate seats and Schumer ends up with a promotion to majority leader of the Senate. No easy task, but very doable. And Ohio could be a key component of that.

Last year, when Brown was running for re-election against Cleveland-area car dealer Bernie Moreno, he was running against a political novice in a year when Trump was winning Ohio by a double-digit margin.

Moreno defeated Brown by about 3.5 percentage points. Clearly the Republican won by riding the coattails of Trump.

But Ohio voters' affair with Trump may be wearing thin.

A Baldwin-Wallace University Poll earlier this year showed Trump鈥檚 approval rating among Ohioans was under water by a small margin. But, with the backlash against Trump鈥檚 鈥淏ig Beautiful Bill,鈥 the unpopularity and uncertainty of the Trump tariffs, and a host of other issues, it is hard to imagine that Trump鈥檚 standing among Ohio voters is going to get any better.

In the early stages of his campaign, Husted has been touting his vote in favor of the 鈥淏ig Beautiful Bill鈥 as a boon for Ohio families.

David Niven, a political science professor at the University of Cincinnati, said Husted is 鈥渃reating a real opportunity for Sherrod Brown.鈥

鈥淓very time a community hospital closes or has to cut back services, or a food bank can鈥檛 afford to operate, it鈥檚 going to be blamed on Donald Trump and the Republicans who support him,鈥 he said.

The Brown-Moreno race was the most expensive Senate race in the country last year, with nearly $485 million spent.

Husted-Brown could beat that record, with a half billion or more.

鈥淥hio was used to being at the center of presidential races for a long time,鈥欌 Niven said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 no longer the case. But it can be the most important Senate race in the country.鈥

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Howard Wilkinson is in his 50th year of covering politics on the local, state and national levels.