STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Each day that passes with the war unresolved is a day closer to the midterm elections, which seem to worry Republicans a bit. Rina Shah is following this. She's a political strategist and founder of the consulting firm Rilax Strategies. She has also served as a senior aide to two Republican members of Congress. Welcome back.
RINA SHAH: Hi, nice to be with you.
INSKEEP: So usually, people do not vote on foreign policy. But do you see this foreign policy issue affecting actual votes this fall?
SHAH: Well, when we talk about the American involvement in the ongoing stalemate with Iran, the biggest impact may actually be right here at home in American politics. Voters are seeing higher energy prices, global uncertainty and another chapter in a long pattern of Washington entanglement abroad. So it's feeding a widespread sense of frustration, not just with one party, but with the system itself. People on both sides are wondering why these conflicts keep dragging on while domestic challenges feel largely unresolved.
INSKEEP: I can see a Trump voter being frustrated by this, and we've heard from some Trump voters who said, I voted to get out of foreign entanglements, and here we are entangled. But it is hard to see that person saying, yes, I'm going to vote for a Democrat for Congress.
SHAH: Indeed. But look, analytically speaking, this disillusionment can often lead to what I think is measurable voter pullback, and that's something I'm really concerned about as a political professional. When foreign policy creates these visible costs at the pump or in the headlines, without a clear endpoint, what we see is turnout and engagement tending to dip there, especially among independent and less partisan voters. So we've seen versions of this fatigue, also, I should note, in past cycles, where overseas stalemates made Washington feel very distant from everyday concerns. And this year, that could mean lower participation overall. Again, fewer people showing up motivated, more tuning out the noise. It's not apathy about America's role in the world so much. It's exhaustion with the outcomes that feel incremental at best.
INSKEEP: And then, of course, if you're one of the political professionals out there, you wonder who gains if people stop showing up.
SHAH: Right on. Look, the deeper political dynamic is how this test - this really tests trust in institutions.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
SHAH: Again, another thing I've been very concerned about for about a decade now. Geopolitically, the blockade and the negotiations reflect, I think, real leverage over Iran's nuclear and proxy threats. But domestically, it hands another reminder that complex foreign entanglements rarely deliver quick wins. And if the stalemate lingers without tangible de-escalation or relief on these everyday costs, it could amplify the both sides in Washington are stuck narrative. That environment rewards candidates who speak directly to voter fatigue and promise to refocus on home priorities. I think the bottom line here is that prolonged uncertainty abroad often breeds this disengagement at home. And that reshapes midterm landscapes in very subtle but powerful ways.
INSKEEP: Yeah. You're reminding me that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, of course, had a lot to do with the decline in trust in American institutions in the early part of this century. I want to ask you about the midterm elections coming up. I was looking at the Cook Political Report. They have a House forecast. They have a Senate forecast. And when I look at the map, Democrats, according to Cook Political Report, have an advantage right now, but it doesn't seem to be a guarantee that they would capture the House, even. It seems kind of thin at this point. Republicans are at least still in range of a not-terrible midterm election. Do you see it that way?
SHAH: That's a tough question because I think we are still a long ways out, although it's nearing the 2026 midterms. Yes, Democrats do hold some structural and political advantages that could play out despite the map changes that we're seeing happen already. Historically, the president's party, as we always talk about, loses seats in midterms, and that pattern often holds when voters really feel the economic pinch or that foreign policy fatigue I alluded to earlier. I think redistricting does give Republicans a defensive edge here. New maps in Texas and other Republican-led states could net them several seats and insulate very vulnerable incumbents. That's smart structural politics, but Democrats are countering very effectively in states they control. That's something that has very much caught my attention. And what's more important there is that they may benefit from turnout dynamics. So if frustration with national direction suppresses overall participation, the voters who do show up are often more motivated-based voters. And in many cycles, that has favored the out party.
INSKEEP: In a couple of seconds, what is a word that would describe Republicans' attitudes right now? And I mean, elected Republicans. Optimistic, worried, scared, terrified?
SHAH: I would say worried because, look, the wild card here is voter disillusionment. When people feel Washington isn't delivering, whether on gas prices, inflation or foreign stalemates, participation drops. But again, Republicans will lean on the new map and claims of strength abroad. So it's not guaranteed for either side, but that combination of structural Republican gains from redistricting and then potential Democratic tailwinds from public mood makes this a tighter, more volatile House battle than the raw seat math suggests. Turnout will be the decider.
INSKEEP: Rina Shah, thanks so much.
SHAH: Thank you, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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