LEILA FADEL, HOST:
European leaders have publicly congratulated Trump on reaching a deal with Iran, but they also are reserving final judgment. Ian Lesser has been listening along with us from Brussels. He's a distinguished fellow with the German Marshall Fund, a public policy think tank that promotes trans-Atlantic relations. Good morning, Ian, and welcome to the program.
IAN LESSER: Good morning. Good to be with you.
FADEL: So as we heard, we still don't know the details of the deal. European leaders have welcomed it, but do they have confidence in it?
LESSER: Well, they have hope. There have been a lot of disappointments along the last months. And I think there's a degree of skepticism in Europe, both about what's been said from Washington, but also, of course, whether Iran can be trusted to stick with the deal, whatever the terms may be. And I think there's a lot of curiosity simply to see what these terms are on points that Europe is very vested in.
FADEL: What are the main concerns when it comes to the U.S. and Iran from European leaders, especially given that we've seen President Trump say multiple times that a deal is close, that there is a deal, that the war is over, and Iran continually making these really maximalist demands?
LESSER: Well, actually, I think given all the dispute across the Atlantic about the conflict, I mean, there's a certain irony that European and American concerns about Iran are not all that much different about the nature of the regime, about the nuclear ambitions, ballistic missiles, proxies, etc. The list looks very similar. So I think European officials are going to be interested in seeing, A, whether this comes off. But, B, you know, what's the content, and can they get some movement on all of those things that are of concern for them, including ballistic missiles, by the way. It's not just the nuclear program. Much of Europe is actually within range of ballistic missiles. So they're very concerned about that. They're very concerned about their own energy security and economies. And above all, they want to see the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping again. And they're going to want to know what might be required of them in terms of their own deployments and strategy.
FADEL: You mentioned Europe's actually in the vicinity of these ballistic missiles. President Trump never consulted with European allies before launching the first airstrikes in Iran. Do leaders in Europe believe anything has been achieved with this month's long war now?
LESSER: I think there's hope for the ceasefire. They want to get out of this conflict, and they want to get back to normal trade through - trade with the Persian Gulf. But I - but, you know, there will be a lot of skepticism and a good deal of debate on both sides of the Atlantic, obviously, about what has really been achieved. I mean, you could argue that at the moment, we're no better off than we were before the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which the Trump administration had originally disavowed. And so, you know, what has really been achieved? Well, we're going to have to see. I mean, there could be very substantial progress on the nuclear file. We'll have to see what that is. A lot of European countries have the capacity to contribute to demining and other kinds of maritime security, but not if there are active hostilities going on. So there's also a lot of concern about where this leaves Europe in terms of its own capabilities to operate outside of its own neighborhood.
FADEL: One thing that did come out of this war, as you point out, is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran taking it over, blockading it, the U.S. trying to blockade it back. European allies, including France, Germany and the U.K. have pledged to provide security in the strait if and when it reopens in accordance with this deal. Does Europe have the capabilities to follow through there?
LESSER: Well, as long as it's not under conditions of active hostilities, I think it probably does. And maybe for a long period of time, many European countries, including some quite small allies, have substantial mine warfare capabilities, but not to operate in very high-intensity environments. That requires the United States. And I think one of the concerns will be that if Europe is committing itself to those kinds of operations, whether the United States will be there to help them.
FADEL: There is a lot of distrust between Washington and Tehran. Could Europe take a role, potentially, to mediate and hold both sides accountable?
LESSER: I think there will be some desire to do that. It's not an easy thing to do at the moment, given all the stress in trans-Atlantic relations, but on the other hand, on some questions like how to proceed with Iran's highly enriched uranium, there could well be a role, and not just for Europe, but also for multinational organizations, for the International Atomic Energy Agency, for example. Europe is very vested in some of those organizations. So I - yes, I think under certain conditions, Europe could play an important diplomatic role still.
FADEL: Ian Lesser is a distinguished fellow with the German Marshall Fund, and he joined us from Brussels. Thank you so much for your time.
LESSER: My pleasure. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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