Harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie are expected to be mild this summer for the second year in a row, according to the 鈥檚 annual algae forecast.
Last year鈥檚 bloom was ranked at a 3 on NOAA鈥檚 severity scale. This summer, the bloom is forecasted to be about the same. That means much of the lake will be safe to swim in most of the time, according to NOAA researcher Rick Stumpf.
There are trace amounts of cyanobacteria, the type of algae that causes the blooms, he said, but there is no active bloom currently in the lake.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a hint of cyanobacteria in Sandusky Bay, but not very much of that at this time,鈥� Stumpf said. 鈥淚n the rest of the lake, for the other areas, we also don鈥檛 see any evidence of bloom from satellites.鈥�
Blooms with a severity index of 5 or above generally pose greater risk to drinking water and recreation in Lake Erie.
The bloom could reach a 4.5 on the severity scale later this year, Stumpf said. Depending on wind variation and other factors like additional runoff, though, models show a risk that it could rise as high as a 6. Less wind and still waters allows algae to grow more, he explained.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of variation within the same type of year and that has to do with wind conditions,鈥� Stumpf said. 鈥淯nfortunately, we can鈥檛 forecast this far in advance which direction the wind is going to blow.鈥�
The 2020 forecast predicted algal blooms would be much more severe than they ended up being, Stumpf said and so models for 2021 have been adjusted.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 an important part of the exercise of doing a forecast and evaluating them is to make sure that our models and forecasts actually can stay up-to-date and current and accurate,鈥� Stumpf said.
This is the first time Lake Erie will see two consecutive years of mild blooms in more than a decade, Stumpf said. But that could be because Northern Ohio may be entering what鈥檚 known as a dry period, he said, with less spring runoff.
鈥淚f we end up in a drier period, we may go through a round of smaller blooms,鈥� Stumpf said. 鈥淏ut we go back into a wet period, and we could have concern there.鈥�
The region typically cycles between wet and dry periods every few years, Stumpf said. Recently, wet periods have lasted longer, he said, and that鈥檚 when the risk for problematic algal blooms goes up.
鈥淭hat is consistent with the climate changes, which have shown a slow increase, particularly in spring rainfall, in this area,鈥� Stumpf said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a little hard to presume what may happen.
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